The Bitcoin price has more than halved since its highs at the end of 2017. Recently there have been some significant developments and I see the cryptocurrency entering a decisive phase. Can the Bitcoin system regain its old splendor or tumble the prices further? An updated assessment.
If new highs are initially out of reach, then at least five-digit courses should be defended. After falling back below the psychologically important $ 10,000 mark for the first time since the beginning of December, Bitcoin was repeatedly re-conquered.
Powerful players around the system have pretty much thrown in the balance these days. The notorious Peter Thiel tried last time to explain again why Bitcoin is a great investment in the long term. Into the same horn blows the bustling venture capitalist Tim Draper with the assertion that we would all pay in five years only with crypto money – of course!
In addition, Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisor constructed a pseudo-analytical chart, where for 2020 a price of $ 91,000 comes out. These are probably only a few selected messages, which were placed specifically on relevant news and financial portals. Despite interim successes, the currency dipped again.
The advertising platforms do not participate anymore
It’s not just Bitcoin, where it goes haywire. Today, hundreds of virtual coins and cryptic tokens are available. Many more or less innovative tech start-ups have been trying to get on the bandwagon for months. They create fantasies of currency, often relatively marginally to acquire relatively much money for their respective platforms – often on the verge of (Il) legality. ICO, based on IPO (IPO), is the magic word, which means the establishment of the tradability of coins and tokens.
That drives ever more colorful flowers and because it is so much money in the game, also put a lot in advertising. Only those who make themselves known and neatly on the timpani can also collect money. But first Facebook(WKN: A1JWVX) and now Google do not want to give it anymore. The two leading advertising platforms prohibit all advertisements for cryptocurrencies, ICOs, and the dangerous binary options. They want to show ads that are as beneficial as possible to the users of the platforms, instead of deceiving them and bringing their savings.
How it continues now
Facebook and Google are extremely large, but the Internet is of course many times bigger. Alternative advertising opportunities are like sand on the sea. Nevertheless, it is a clear sign to me that there is a growing belief that cryptocurrencies are problematic. On the other hand, the measures are aimed rather against new offers and gambling platforms, less against “established” coins such as Bitcoin and ether, so the impact on the latter is unclear to me.
In any case, it is certain that in England it is expected that soon there will be real Bitcoin futures. For the securities traded in the US are only settled in cash on the balance sheet date and therefore have no significant influence on actual trading. Only the “physical” delivery of Bitcoins will make a difference, because then it will no longer be betting on the price development and a supply shortage will be possible. That will be exciting to watch.
It is also interesting that IMF head Christine Lagarde once again spoke up. She opposes prohibitions, but more rules. You have to use tools like the blockchain itself to increase transparency and security. This too is a double-edged sword, as well as the next point.
I find it funny that Sheba Jafari of Goldman Sachs (WKN: 920332), like Tom Lee, chooses a chartanalytical approach and comes to the opposite conclusion, namely that the prices of the crypto currencies may continue to tumble for some time. However, he does not come to a clear statement as to what the perspectives might look like afterwards.
For this one would have to look at the fundamental value and see more and more financial experts near zero. Therefore, I rather expect that Bitcoin and its promoters continue to find ways to fuel interest and keep the price in the four- to five-digit range.
However, this is certainly not the case, because the last large-scale offensives were only able to prevent the worst, without giving new impetus. One must, therefore, be prepared at all times that the system increasingly runs out of air. Anyway, I prefer to stay away from it like Google and Facebook – and continue to focus on promising companies that create real value.